Notes for Kahneman and Nemetics

 Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
"System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control.

"System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that deman it, includeing complex computations. The operants of System 2 are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration."

"Although System 2 believes itself to be where the action is, the automatic System 1 is the hero of the book."

In Nemetish

Thinking is a process of Notice. Engage. Mull. Exchange. All steps are always present.

System 2 Notices problems that are kicked up from System 1.

System 2 is lazy. It's  tendency is to cycle just long enough to get a solution that is good enough to move forward.

In System 1 the cycle time from Notice to Exchange is wordless. too fast to measure

In System 2 the cycle time from Notice to Exchange is word bound - slow and requires patience, persistence and energy.
.

Some snippets follow.

"Psychologists think of ideas as nodes in a vast network, called associative memory in which each idea is link to many others. . . .In the current view of how associative memory works, a great deal happens at once, An idea that has been activated does not merely evoke one other idea. It activates many ideas which in turn activate others. Furthermore, only a few of the activated ideas will register in consciousness; most of the work of associate thinking is silent, hidden form our conscious selves."


"The world makes much less sense than you think. The coherence comes mostly form the way your mind works"

"System 1 constructed a story and System 2 believed it."

"Creativity is associative memory that works exceptionally well."

"What you see is all there is (WYSIATI ) "

"If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System 1 will find a related question that is easier and will answer it. "

Experiments in Temperature Gradient Mode : Walls, Medium, Membranes

Figure 1

Setup 1. 2D

Figure 2

Run Set up 1. 2d

Figure 3

Run Set up 1. 3d

Figure 4

Set up 1. 2d 

Medium added

Figure 5

Set up 1. Medium 3D 

Figure 6

 Set Up 2. 

Added Walls and Medium

Red lines walls, Grey lines Medium

Figure 7

Set up 2.  Run 2D

Figure 8 

Run Set up 2. 3d

Figure 9

Set up 3.  

Added Walls and Medium 

Figure 10

Set up 3. 3d

Figure 11

Run Set up 4 

More Walls and Medium

Figure 12

Set up 4 Run 3D

Agility, Permeable and SemiPermeable Membranes

In the Ripple Tank simulator there are two kinds of boundaries available - edit Walls, edit Medium. I think but do not know the edit Medium changes the density of the fluid through which the waves move. I am taking the Medium boundaries as semipermeable membranes. Walls with Fixed Edges set are rigid and do not allow wave energy to pass through.

Note the energy source is outside rather than inside the nTube represented. 

1. Set Up

2. Set up 1 running for a bit.

3. Set up 2 in 3d view.

4. Set up 2. Note: Walls have been added to the boundary.

5. Set up 2 running for a bit.

6. 3d view of number 5

Rules Based Transformations, NemiTubes and Membranes

A work in progress.

The exploration is to go from A

to B 

Starting Condition

2D view of Pic A above.

Stage 2.

Nemitube membranes form at dissonant wave interactions.

These are drawn by hand, but adjusting the Brightness ( see controls )

allows fine distinctions of border conditions.

Stage 3

NemiTube membranes are constraints of wave patterns going forward.

Note they are sensitively dependent on shape.

Stage 4

At the lower left nemiTube new membranes form along wave dissonant lines.

Stage 5

2D view of Pic B above

Federal Reserve October reports on Economy

I've often believed the data from the regional Federal Reserve offices are the data to watch to try to guess where we've been and thus we're we might be going. The problem is that this data has been usually locked up in the Beige Books and it seems mainstream media is not willing to spend the time reading them closely. I highly recommend taking the time to page through the presentation below.. National Economic Indicators, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. October 2012

It all depends on how one looks at ... Ohio

Less smoothing Moderate Smoothing

Swing States as of October 4

Note October 4 data is based on only two polls as of Oct 7.
Presidential debate was held Oct 3.




http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom



 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom Ohio



 


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-florida-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom

Who will be President .. October 6

The polls after the debate are starting to come in. Interesting that both Romney and Obama both turn downward...

Who will win the House or Representatives?

Who will be president? no.2

Below is chart taken from Huffington Post.
You can try it yourself by following the links from the Election Dashboard Home Page 

2008 to 2012

Who is going to be President?

Chart above starts in 2008

Notes for an Iterative Nemetical Model

A central Nemetical variable is Constraints. Following are some images to explore that variable.

Setup - Interior Shape based on interference pattern with 12 sourcepoint

Time x with Fixed Edges
I see coherence within the inner shape

Three Dimensional View of Previous Snapshot 

Fixed Edges Unclicked  Time y
I see a lack of coherence in the interior shape.

Fixed Edges UnClicked Time y + a
Also a lack of coherence

Be very interested in what you see.

Towards an Iterative Nemetical Model 2

Set Up

2D view 

Following Snapshots taken at 1 second intervals

3D view

Following is a 3D of the edge views above.

Notes for an iterative nemetics model

Before the snapshots below were taken Pulses in the rough rhythm of a heartbeat were run for about ten seconds. After that time there were no further pluses and therefore no new energy was imput into the wave form. 

Note Damping is set to zero. Resistance to zero emulates a frictionless state. Not possible in the real world, although I wonder if it might apply in the electromagnetic spectrum. Note also the end point is set to fixed. Probably can not be emulated in the em spectrum.

Below are some snapshots of the same startup conditions with a loose instead of a fixed end point.