It all depends on how one looks at ... Ohio

Less smoothing Moderate Smoothing

Swing States as of October 4

Note October 4 data is based on only two polls as of Oct 7.
Presidential debate was held Oct 3.




http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom



 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom Ohio



 


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-florida-president-romney-vs-obama#!smoothing=less&estimate=custom